The reality check for AEW's growth
Claudio Castagnoli is currently convinced that AEW is poised for a permanent climb in popularity, citing a recent upswing in the product. It is a nice sentiment, but professional wrestling is rarely that kind to companies banking on momentum. Having watched these cycles for years, the promotion needs to turn that internal confidence into a rigid, consistent booking strategy before the excitement fades into mediocrity.
Growth in this industry is rarely linear. It usually looks like a jagged sawtooth pattern driven by high-profile feuds rather than steady corporate progress. While the roster depth is objectively higher than it was two years ago, the promotion often struggles to bridge the gap between technical clinics and storylines that casual viewers can actually digest.
The injury bug disrupts the momentum
The recent ROH Title drama involving Deonna Purrazzo is exactly the kind of friction AEW cannot afford right now. When a high-stakes title match ends prematurely due to an injury, the creative engine stalls. It forces the writing team to pivot on the fly, which usually leads to rushed angles or empty title pictures.
You cannot build a permanent climb if your foundation is constantly shifting under the weight of health issues. Purrazzo is a massive asset to the women's division. Losing her consistency for any length of time creates a void in the main event scene that takes months to effectively repair.
Tactical booking in the midcard
Mark Davis is heading to RevPro for his latest title defense, a move that signals the company's commitment to giving their belts pedigree on the independent scene. This is a smart move if used to build equity for the talent, but it is dangerous if the AEW television product feels secondary by comparison. Fans want to see the titles defended where the stories are actually moving forward.
As Claudio Castagnoli suggested recently, the company culture feels more stable than it did in the past. Yet, stability does not guarantee a ratings floor. Booking a belt on foreign soil is a prestige play. It only satisfies the hardcore base, not the broader market they claim to be capturing.
The booking prediction
I predict that AEW finishes 2026 with a ratings flatline despite the internal optimism. They will continue to produce high-level matches, but they have failed to fix the primary issue: the barrier to entry for new fans is still too high. Until they trim the fat on their mid-card angles, they will remain in a permanent state of hovering.
Mark Davis will hold onto his title in his upcoming defense, but the match will lack the stakes needed to move the needle for the primary audience. Unless they lean into tighter, shorter-term storytelling that values pacing over work-rate, this so-called climb will look more like a plateau by the time the winter pay-per-view schedule hits.
